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Market panorama. 13 ژوئیه 2018

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I. Market focus:

The beginning of Friday’s session was marked by the weakening of the pound. The UK’s currency came under pressure after the comments of the U.S. president Donald Trump, who is on a working visit to the UK. In his interview to the Sun, the U.S. leader said that the prime minister Theresa May’s plan, implying a "soft" Brexit, would have a negative impact on the future trade agreement between Washington and London, since in this case the UK will remain too close to the EU and the U.S. “would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK". His support for the "hard" Brexit Trump expressed by the comments that Boris Johnson, who resigned as foreign secretary earlier this week due to disagreement with May’s Brexit plan, would “make a great prime minister”.

In the morning, another important event was the release of China's data on trade balance for June. The country’s trade surplus rose more than expected last month due to a sharp decline in growth pace of imports. Moreover, the data revealed that China’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit a record high. It is unlikely that Donald Trump will leave this fact uncommented, so tweets from the American president on this issue are expected to come soon.

The final session of the week will not be very busy with releases of important macroeconomic reports. The most important data will be statistics on consumer sentiment in the U.S. from Reuters/Michigan (14:00 GMT). In the stock market, quarterly reports of companies will be in focus. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) and Citigroup Inc. (C) will release their quarterly financials before the market opens.


II. The market highlights are:

  • The data from the Labor Department reported on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a tight labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased 18,000 to 214,000 for the week ended July 7. That was the lowest reading since the week ending May 5. Economists had expected 225,000 new claims last week. Claims for the prior week were revised upwardly to 232,000 from the initial estimate of 231,000. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims rose 1,750 to 223,000 last week.

  • The Labor Department announced on Thursday the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.1 percent m-o-m in June, following an unrevised 0.2 percent m-o-m gain in May. Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 2.9 percent y-o-y last month after a 2.8 percent y-o-y increase in the 12 months through May. That was the highest inflation rate since February of 2012. Economists had forecast the CPI to rise 0.2 percent m-o-m and 2.9 percent y-o-y in the 12-month period. According to the report, the indexes for shelter (+0.1 percent m-o-m), gasoline (+0.5 percent m-o-m), and food (+0.2 percent m-o-m) all rose to lead to the seasonally adjusted increase in the headline index. Meanwhile, the core CPI excluding volatile food and fuel costs rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in June, the same pace as in May. In the 12 months through June, the core CPI rose 2.3 percent, accelerating from a 2.2 percent advance in the year through May. That was the highest rate since January 2017. Economists had forecast the core CPI to rise 0.2 percent m-o-m and 2.3 percent y-o-y last month.

  • The latest Bank of New Zealand’s (BNZ) survey showed on Thursday that expansion activity in New Zealand's manufacturing sector decelerated in June. The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) came in at 52.8 last month compared to the May revised reading of 54.4 (originally 54.5). That marked the lowest level of monthly expansion since December 2017. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity, whereas a reading below that level represents contraction. According to the report, four of five sub-indexes fell in June, with production gauge (-1.6 points m-o-m to 51.8) leading the decline. Meanwhile, the new orders index (+0.4 points m-o-m to 57.1) continued running on the encouraging side. BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said that "broadly speaking, the PMI has settled down into a trend-like pace this year, averaging 53.8 (excluding April’s spike). This is after outperformance through most of 2017, when it averaged 56.2".

  • The report from the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed on Friday the Chinese trade surplus rose more than forecast in June. According to the report, China’s exports surged 11.3 percent y-o-y last month to $216.87 billion compared to a 12.6 percent y-o-y increase in May and economists’ forecast of a 10.0 percent y-o-y growth. Meanwhile, the country’s imports jumped 14.1 percent y-o-y in June to $175.20 billion after a 26.0 percent y-o-y climb in the prior month, while economists had forecast a 20.8 percent y-o-y surge. That marked the fastest growth in imports since January. Those trade flows produced a trade surplus of $41.61 billion in June, compared to a surplus of $24.92 billion in May and a surplus of $42.79 billion in June 2017. Economists had expected a trade surplus of $27.90 billion in June.

III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD traded slightly lower, near yesterday's low, as the U.S. currency resumed its growth on the back of continuing trade tensions. Investors fear that the escalation of the trade conflict between the U.S. and China could slow the global economy and weigh on commodity prices, hurting the emerging economies. These worries support the U.S. dollar, as traders reduce riskier positions and buy a safer U.S. currency. Today, investors will focus on the U.S. data on the import price index for June and Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index for July. According to economists’ forecasts, import prices rose 0.1 percent last month after an increase of 0.6 percent in May, while the consumer sentiment index remained at 98.2 points this month. Resistance level - $1.1790 (high of July 9). Support level - $1.1591 (low of July 2).

The currency pair GBP/USD declined moderately, refreshing its 1-1/2-week low, as the pound fell in response to the comments of the U.S. president Donald Trump, who is on a working visit to the UK. In his interview to the Sun, the U.S. leader said that the prime minister Theresa May’s plan, implying a "soft" Brexit, would have a negative impact on the future trade agreement between Washington and London, since in this case the UK will remain too close to the EU and the U.S. “would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK". With an almost empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, traders will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets, as well as the comments of the Bank of England (BoE) deputy governor Jon Cunliffe. Resistance level - $1.3363 (high of July 9). Support level - $1.3094 (low of July 2).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded slightly higher, supported by upbeat data from China, Australia's main trading partner. The report from the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed the Chinese trade surplus rose more than forecast in June. According to the report, China’s exports surged 11.3 percent y-o-y last month to $216.87 billion compared to a 12.6 percent y-o-y increase in May and economists’ forecast of a 10.0 percent y-o-y growth. Meanwhile, the country’s imports jumped 14.1 percent y-o-y in June to $175.20 billion after a 26.0 percent y-o-y climb in the prior month, while economists had forecast a 20.8 percent y-o-y surge. That marked the fastest growth in imports since January. Those trade flows produced a trade surplus of $41.61 billion in June, compared to a surplus of $24.92 billion in May. Economists had expected a trade surplus of $27.90 billion in June. Resistance level - AUD0.7483 (high of July 9-10). Support level - AUD0.7360 (low of July 11).

The currency pair USD/JPY consolidated near the opening level, due to the lack of new drivers that were able to power its recent rally, as well as investors’ unwillingness to open new long positions. In addition, market participants continue to digest yesterday's CPI data from the U.S., which pointed to the acceleration of consumer inflation. The Labor Department announced the consumer price index rose 2.9 percent over the last 12 months, which was the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 2012. Inflation is now more in line the Fed's desired levels. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday the Fed was “really close” to its 2 percent inflation target. Resistance level - Y113.00 (high of January 9). Support level - Y110.76 (low of July 11).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,798.29

+0.87%

Dow

24,924.89

+0.91%

NASDAQ

7,823.92

+1.39%

Nikkei

22,597.35

+1.85%

Hang Seng

28,536.28

+0.19%

Shanghai

2,831.55

-0.22%

S&P/ASX

6,268.40

0.00%


U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher on Thursday, with Nasdaq notching at a new record, as the equity market rebounded from the decline triggered by trade worries the day before. Investors also assessed the June data on consumer price index (CPI) and the weekly jobless claims. The data from the Labor Department reported the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a tight labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased 18,000 to 214,000 for the week ended July 7. That was the lowest reading since the week ending May 5. Economists had expected 225,000 new claims last week. Meanwhile, the Labor Department announced the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.1 percent m-o-m in June, following an unrevised 0.2 percent m-o-m gain in May. Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 2.9 percent y-o-y last month after a 2.8 percent y-o-y increase in the 12 months through May. That was the highest inflation rate since February of 2012. Economists had forecast the CPI to rise 0.2 percent m-o-m and 2.9 percent y-o-y in the 12-month period. At the same time, the core CPI excluding volatile food and fuel costs rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in June, the same pace as in May. In the 12 months through June, the core CPI rose 2.3 percent, accelerating from a 2.2 percent advance in the year through May. That was the highest rate since January 2017. Economists had forecast the core CPI to rise 0.2 percent m-o-m and 2.3 percent y-o-y last month.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly higher on Friday, tracking Wall Street's overnight gains, as trade concerns eased, as China did not announce retaliatory measures in response to Trump's $200 billion tariffs threats, and focus turned to solid expectations for the U.S. corporate earnings. Japan’s benchmark, the Nikkei, outperformed, as the yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, supporting the Japanese large export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.85% (+1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.30% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.29% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in August settled at $70.35 (+0.02%). The crude oil prices consolidated near the opening level, amid positive dynamics of the U.S. dollar. Market participants are now awaiting weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count from Baker Hughes, set to be released later today (17:00 GMT).

Gold traded at $1,245.60 (-0.14%). Gold prices fell slightly, as the U.S. currency strengthened. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.13 percent to 94.93. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


07:15

Switzerland

Producer & Import Prices

08:00

Eurozone

ECOFIN Meetings

11:00

United Kingdom

MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks

12:30

U.S.

Import Price Index

14:00

U.S.

Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

15:00

U.S.

Fed Monetary Policy Report

16:30

U.S.

FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

17:00

U.S.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count


Market Focus

  • U.S consumer sentiment slipped in early July but remained nearly equal to the average in the prior twelve months
  • U.S. Import Prices Unexpectedly Decrease, Export Prices Rise More Than Expected
  • Fed's Kaplan: Could be convinced of need for fourth rate hike in 2018 depending on outlook
  • Fed: Prospective economic conditions call for further gradual removal of monpol accommodation
ژوئیه 2018
  • 2018
  • 2017
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  • 2014
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  • 2012
  • 2011
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