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Market panorama. 19 نوامبر 2018

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I. Market focus

A relative calm prevailed in the global financial markets at the beginning of the new week. The focus of market participants continued to be on the Brexit-related developments. By the beginning of the European session, it became known that the Conservative Party does not have enough letters to trigger a vote of no confidence in British Prime Minister Theresa May. The Sun’s report revealed that a total of 42 Tory MPs had given firm assurances that they had submitted letters saying they no longer support the PM against 48 needed. However, their number may soon increase. The EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier’s proposition to extend the Brexit transition until the end of 2022 can contribute to this. At first glance, this is positive news, but the transition period implies that London will have to follow all EU laws and the European court of justice rulings. So, if Teresa May agrees to this proposal, the chances of losing her position will obviously increase, since many representatives of the Conservative Party were outraged by the need the UK remaining under EU control by the end of 2020, so the extension of the transitional period for another two years will clearly not please them.

Among other reports of Monday morning, the results of annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, which ended in Papua New Guinea, should be noted. It was expected that this meeting will be marked by a thaw in relations between the United States and China. But the opposite happened – Washington and Beijing revealed their competing ambitions for the region, so the APEC summit wrapped without a formal joint statement from the leaders involved. As a result, in market participants' optimism about the possible easing of tension in the trade dispute between the two countries decreased.

No important macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for today. The main topic in the markets will remain Brexit.


II. The market highlights are:

Statistics Canada released its Monthly Survey of Manufacturing on Friday, which showed that the Canadian manufacturing sales rose 0.2 percent m-o-m in September to CAD58.48 billion, following a revised 0.5 percent m-o-m drop in August (originally a 0.4 percent m-o-m decline). Economists had anticipated an increase of 0.3 percent m-o-m for September. According to the survey, sales went up in eight of 21 industries led by higher sales in the transportation equipment (+3.1 percent m-o-m). However, these gains were largely offset by decreases in the machinery (-6.2 percent m-o-m) and wood product (-2.9 percent m-o-m) industries. Overall, sales of durable goods declined 0.2 percent m-o-m in September, while sales of non-durable goods surged 0.6 percent m-o-m.


The Federal Reserve reported on Friday that the U.S. industrial production edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m in October, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent m-o-m increase in September (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m advance). Economists had forecast industrial production would rise 0.2 percent m-o-m in October. According to the report, manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent m-o-m for its fifth consecutive monthly increase, while the indexes for mining and for utilities declined 0.3 percent m-o-m and 0.5 percent m-o-m, respectively. It was also noted that hurricanes lowered the level of industrial output in both September and October, but their effects appear to be less than 0.1 percent per month. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged at 78.4 percent in September. That was 0.2 percentage points above economists’ forecast but 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average. In y-o-y terms, the industrial production surged 4.1 percent in October, following an upwardly revised 5.6 percent increase in the prior month (originally a 5.1 percent gain).


The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released on Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by two to 888 during the week ended November 16. In the prior week, the oil-rig count climbed by 12. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, also increased by one to 1,082, as the gas rig count fell by one to 194 last week, and the miscellaneous rig count remained at 0. The U.S. rig count is up 167 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 915.


Statistics New Zealand announced on Sunday that producer output prices increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018 after gaining 0.9 percent in the second quarter. That was the biggest advance in output prices since the fourth quarter of 2016. Meanwhile, input prices rose 1.4 percent last quarter, following a 1.0 percent advance in the prior quarter. That was the largest gain in input prices since the second quarter of 2017. According to the report, the growth in input prices was mainly attributable to a gain in prices in transport, postal, and warehousing industry (+3.1 percent), affected by higher fuel costs. The increase flowed through to customers – output prices these businesses charged for their services rose 2.9 percent in the third quarter. In y-o-y terms, output prices surged 3.6 percent, while input prices surged 4.0 percent.


The Ministry of Finance of Japan reported on Sunday that the country’s trade balance came in at a deficit of a JPY449 bln in October, compared to a revised surplus of JPY131 billion in September (originally a JPY140 billion surplus) and a surplus of JPY279 billion in October of 2017. Economists had projected a JPY70 billion gap for October. The report showed Japan’s imports rose much more than exports. Imports surged 19.9 percent y-o-y in October, following a 7.0 percent y-o-y increase in the prior month. Meanwhile, exports rose 8.2 percent y-o-y last month after a drop of 1.3 percent y-o-y in September.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market

The currency pair EUR/USD demonstrated a weak decline, due to partial profit taking after Friday's rally, the catalyst of which was the widespread weakening of the U.S. dollar in response to cautious statements by the Fed representatives and weak U.S. statistics. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said on Friday the central bank's key rate is getting closer to a "neutral" level amid some signs of slowing global economic growth. Overall, the tone of his statements regarding the Fed’s further increase in interest rates was soft. With an almost empty economic calendar in the Eurozone and the U.S. ahead, traders will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Resistance level - $1.1499 (high of November 7). Support level - $1.1320 (low of November 16).

The currency pair GBP/USD consolidated near the opening level, due to the stabilization of the U.S. dollar and the lack of new drivers. The pair’s growth was limited by talks about the possible resignation of the UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May, which would have a strong impact on the pound, and would have thrown British politics into even greater turmoil. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, the Brexit will continue to be the main topic in the markets. Resistance level - $1.3071 (high of November 14). Support level - $1.2696 (low of October 30).

The currency pair AUD/USD fell slightly, correcting after a significant increase on Friday. Investors were also adjusting their positions ahead of tomorrow's release of the minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting and the speech of the RBA’s governor  Philip Lowe. The minutes contain a detailed description of the situation in Australia's economy, its financial sector, the global economy, as well as examines the employment situation, lending and inflation, which provides an in-depth understanding of the conditions that affected the RBA’s decision. As for Lowe's speech, market participants are hoping that his comments will provide new signals regarding further decisions on the RBA’s monetary policy. Resistance level - AUD0.7362 (high of August 28). Support level - AUD0.7249 (low of November 15-16).

The currency pair USD/JPY traded within a narrow range, near the opening level, as the U.S. dollar stabilized. Investors’ focus also was on Japan’s data on the trade balance. The Ministry of Finance of Japan reported that the country’s trade balance came in at a deficit of a JPY449 bln in October, compared to a revised surplus of JPY131 billion in September (originally a JPY140 billion surplus) and a surplus of JPY279 billion in October of 2017. Economists had projected a JPY70 billion gap for October. The report showed Japan’s imports rose much more than exports. Imports surged 19.9 percent y-o-y in October, following a 7.0 percent y-o-y increase in the prior month. Meanwhile, exports rose 8.2 percent y-o-y last month after a drop of 1.3 percent y-o-y in September. Resistance level - Y114.15 (high of November 12-13). Support level - Y111.36 (low of October 26).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,736.27

+0.22%

Dow

25,413.22

+0.49%

NASDAQ

7,247.87

-0.15%

Nikkei

21,821.16

+0.65%

Hang Seng

26,372.00

+0.72%

Shanghai

2,703.51

+0.91%

S&P/ASX

5,693.70

-0.64%


U.S. stock indexes closed mostly higher on Friday, as rebound in Apple (AAPL; +1.1%) shares, offset declines in chipmakers and retail companies, weighed down by a discouraging guidance from NVIDIA (NVDA; -18.8%) and a weak earnings report by Nordstrom (JWN; -13.7%). Focus also was on data on the industrial output for October. The Federal Reserve reported that the U.S. industrial production edged up 0.1 percent m-o-m in October, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent m-o-m increase in September (originally a 0.3 percent m-o-m advance). Economists had forecast industrial production would rise 0.2 percent m-o-m in October. In y-o-y terms, the industrial production surged 4.1 percent in October, following an upwardly revised 5.6 percent increase in the prior month (originally a 5.1 percent gain).

Asian stock indexes closed mostly higher on Monday,  even as ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei rose moderately, as the weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar, supporting the Japanese export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 3.07% (-4 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.37% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.27% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in December settled at $57.30 (+1.09%). The crude oil prices rose noticeably on hopes OPEC and its allies will agree to an oil production cuts in order to stabilize the market. Investors also continued to digest the latest data from Baker Hughes, which revealed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil rose by two to 888 during the week ended November 16. In the prior week, the oil-rig count climbed by 12. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, also increased by one to 1,082, as the gas rig count fell by one to 194 last week, and the miscellaneous rig count remained at 0. The U.S. rig count is up 167 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 915.

Gold traded at  $1,219.60 (-0.30%). Gold prices fell slightly, as investors took profits after strong growth in quotes last week in response to the weakness in the U.S. dollar and cautious statements by the representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve.


IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


09:00

Eurozone

Current account, unadjusted

10:00

Eurozone

Construction Output

11:00

Germany

Bundesbank Monthly Report

15:00

U.S.

NAHB Housing Market Index

15:45

U.S.

FOMC Member Williams Speaks


Market Focus

  • Irish PM Varadkar: Ideally Would Get Brexit Deal By Year End
  • The sentix overall index for Euro Area fell again in November from 11.4 to 8.8 points
  • UK consumer credit increased by £0.8bn in September
  • Spanish unemployment continues at its lowest levels in the last 9 years
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