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Market panorama. 16 October 2017

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I. Market focus:

16/10/2017

The beginning of the new week was marked by a jump in oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose by almost 1 percent on fears of a reduction in supplies from the Middle East, which intensified after reports of clashes between Iraqi forces and Kurdish fighters in the disputed oil province of Kirkuk.

In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar moderately strengthened against other currencies. Some support for the dollar was provided by Sunday’s comments of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who called inflation “the biggest surprise” in the U.S. economy this year. At the same time, she gives no clear signal about further actions of the Fed.

In Europe, the focus is on Catalonia and the Brexit talks. The authorities of the Spanish autonomous region of Catalonia are just hours away from a deadline (10:00 GMT) set by the central government to clarify whether or not they have declared independence from Spain. The further development of the situation will depend on the response of the Catalonian government.

As for Brexit talks, the media reported that the British Prime Minister intends to make a surprise visit to Brussels today, where, together with the UK's Brexit Secretary David Davis, will meet with the EU’s top Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier and the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.

Among the macroeconomic data of the first day of the week, attention should be paid to the Canadian statistics on operations with foreign securities (12:30 GMT) and New Zealand data on the consumer price index (22:45 GMT).


II. The market highlights are:

  • The Commerce Department announced Friday that sales at U.S. retailers increased 1.6 percent m-o-m in September after a revised 0.1 percent m-o-m drop in August (originally a 0.2 percent decline). That was the biggest increase since March 2015, supported by a jump in auto purchases to replace vehicles damaged by hurricanes Harvey and Irma and by a surge in the gasoline prices also tied to those storms. Economists had expected total sales would rise 1.7 percent m-o-m in September. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 1 percent m-o-m. Meanwhile, the so-called core retail trade, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales advanced 0.4 percent m-o-m last month after being unchanged in August. In y-o-y terms, the U.S. retail sales rose 4.4 percent in September, accelerating growth pace from August’s unrevised increase of 3.2 percent.

  • The Labor Department reported Friday the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.5 percent m-o-m in September after gaining 0.4 percent m-o-m in August. Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 2.2 percent y-o-y last month after advancing 1.9 percent y-o-y in the prior month. Economists had forecast the CPI to gain 0.6 percent m-o-m last month and 2.3 percent y-o-y in the 12-month period. According to the report, the gasoline index surged 13.1 percent m-o-m in September and accounted for about three-fourths of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. Other major energy component indexes were mixed, and the food index (+0.1 percent m-o-m) rose slightly. Core CPI excluding volatile food and fuel costs increased 0.1 percent m-o-m in September after growing 0.2 percent m-o-m in August. In the 12 months through September, the core CPI rose 1.7 percent, the same as in the year through August. Economists had forecast the core CPI to rise 0.2 percent m-o-m and 1.8 percent y-o-y last month.

  • A report from the University of Michigan showed Friday the preliminary reading for the Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to 101.1 in October. That was the strongest reading since January 2004. Economists had expected the index would hit 95.0 in the first half of October, down from 95.1 in September’s final reading. According to the report, the index of consumer expectations increased to 91.3  this month from 84.4 in September, while the index of current U.S. economic conditions rose to 116.4 in October from 111.7 in the previous month.

  • The Commerce Department said Friday that business inventories rose 0.7 percent m-o-m in August after increasing 0.3 m-o-m in July (revised from a 0.2 percent m-o-m gain). That was in-line with economists’ forecast. The August advance in inventories came as wholesalers’ inventories rose 0.9 percent m-o-m, retailers’ stocks grew 0.7 percent m-o-m, and manufacturers’ inventories increased 0.4 percent m-o-m. Retail inventories excluding autos, used in the calculation of GDP, grew 0.4 percent m-o-m in August, following a 0.1 percent drop reported in the prior month.

  • The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by five to 743 during the week ended October 13. That followed a decrease of two rigs in the prior week. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, dropped by eight to 928, as the gas rig count also decreased by two to 185 last week, while and the miscellaneous rig count declined by one to 0. The U.S. rig count is up 389 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 539.

  • The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported Monday that China’s producer price index (PPI) rose 6.9 percent y-o-y in September, after gaining 6.3 percent y-o-y in August. That was the highest increase since March. Economists had expected producer inflation would increase by 6.3 percent in September. The producer price inflation was boosted by increases in the prices for building materials. The PPI rose 1.0 percent m-o-m in September, faster than a 0.9 percent gain in August. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.6 percent y-o-y in September, decelerating from August's 1.8 percent y-o-y rise. That was in-line with economists‘ forecast. The slowdown was mainly due to falling prices of food, while the cost of non-food continued to grow. In m-o-m terms, the CPI went up 0.5 percent last month, following a 0.4 percent gain in the previous month.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD decreased slightly, updating the Friday session’s low, reacting to Sunday’s comments of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who called inflation “the biggest surprise” in the U.S. economy this year. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for the publication of the August data on the Eurozone's trade balance. Most recent indicators indicate that the Eurozone's economy continues to grow in the second half of the year at the same good pace as in the first six months of the year. However, as the ECB approaches the decision about the future of its asset purchase program, many experts are interested whether a stronger euro has put pressure on the on Eurozone’s exports. In July, exports increased by 1.1 percent. If today's data indicate that the pace of export growth was comparable in August, this will allay the ECB officials, who are considering the curtailment of stimulus. Without seasonal adjustments, the Eurozone’s trade surplus is projected to increase to EUR23.3 billion in August from EUR23.2 billion in July. Today, the focus also will be on the Bundesbank Monthly Report, the U.S. statistics on activity index in the manufacturing sector from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as well as comments by ECB representative Lautenschläger. Resistance level - $1.1880 (high of October 12). Support level - $1.1669 (low of October 6).

The currency pair GBP/USD consolidated near the opening level, due to lack of new drivers. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, investors will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Attention will be also paid to the news about the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s surprise visit to Brussels, where, she together with the UK's Brexit Secretary David Davis, is to meet with the EU’s top Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier and the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker. Tomorrow, inflation data on Britain will be in focus of investors' attention. Economists expect that the UK’s annual consumer inflation in September rose to 3.0 percent after gaining 2.9 percent in August, hitting almost five-year high. Such data would increase the probability that the Bank of England (BoE) could increase interest rate soon. In addition, market participants will pay particular attention to the official data on earnings and retail sales, which will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Resistance level - $1.3453 (high of September 28). Support level - $1.3017 (low of September 6).

The currency pair AUD/USD decreased slightly, retreating from a nearly three-week high, helped by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and mixed data from China, Australia's largest trading partner. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that China’s producer price index (PPI) rose 6.9 percent y-o-y in September, after gaining 6.3 percent y-o-y in August. That was the highest increase since March. Economists had expected producer inflation would increase by 6.3 percent in September. The producer price inflation was boosted by increases in the prices for building materials. The PPI rose 1.0 percent m-o-m in September, faster than a 0.9 percent gain in August. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.6 percent y-o-y in September, decelerating from August's 1.8 percent y-o-y rise. That was in-line with economists‘ forecast. The slowdown was mainly due to falling prices of food, while the cost of non-food continued to grow. In m-o-m terms, the CPI went up 0.5 percent last month, following a 0.4 percent gain in the previous month. Resistance level - AUD0.7983 (high of September 22). Support level - AUD0.7734 (low of October 6).

The currency pair USD/JPY increased slightly at the beginning of the session but then retreated to the opening level amid rising fears over North Korea. Multiple South Korean media reports over the weekend, citing unidentified military officials, said North Korean missile vehicles “kept appearing and disappearing” from the map and “transporter erector launchers”  had been spotted carrying ballistic missiles from near Pyongyang and North Pyongan province. Market participants also closely watch the election campaigning in Japan and await the announcement of new BoJ governor, as Haruhiko Kuroda’s term ends in April. There are high chances that Mr. Kuroda will be reappointed. Resistance level - Y112.82 (high of October 10). Support level - Y111.48 (low of September 25).

Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,553.17

+0.09%

Dow

22,871.72

+0.13%

NASDAQ

6,605.80

+0.22%

Nikkei

21,255.56

+0.47%

Hang Seng

28,692.80

+0.76%

Shanghai

3,378.80

-0.35%

S&P/ASX

5,846.76

+0.56%


U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Friday, with the Nasdaq recording an all-time high, supported by upbeat economic data and gains in technology shares. The Commerce Department announced that sales at U.S. retailers increased 1.6 percent m-o-m in September after a revised 0.1 percent m-o-m drop in August (originally a 0.2 percent decline). That was the biggest increase since March 2015, supported by jump in auto purchases to replace vehicles damaged by hurricanes Harvey and Irma and by a surge in the gasoline prices also tied to those storms. Economists had expected total sales would rise 1.7 percent m-o-m in September. Meanwhile, the Labor Department reported the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.5 percent m-o-m in September after gaining 0.4 percent m-o-m in August. Over the last 12 months, the CPI rose 2.2 percent y-o-y last month after advancing 1.9 percent y-o-y in the prior month. Economists had forecast the CPI to gain 0.6 percent m-o-m last month and 2.3 percent y-o-y in the 12-month period. Core CPI excluding volatile food and fuel costs increased 0.1 percent m-o-m in September after growing 0.2 percent m-o-m in August. In the 12 months through September, the core CPI rose 1.7 percent, the same as in the year through August. Economists had forecast the core CPI to rise 0.2 percent m-o-m and 1.8 percent y-o-y last month. A report from the University of Michigan showed the preliminary reading for the Reuters/Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to 101.1 in October. That was the strongest reading since January 2004. Economists had expected the index would hit 95.0 in the first half of October, down from 95.1 in September’s final reading.

Asian stock indexes closed mainly higher on Monday, tracking gains on Wall Street on Friday. Market participants also assessed mixed data from China. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that China’s producer price index (PPI) rose 6.9 percent y-o-y in September, after gaining 6.3 percent y-o-y in August. That was the highest increase since March. Economists had expected producer inflation would increase by 6.3 percent in September. The producer price inflation was boosted by increases in the prices for building materials. The PPI rose 1.0 percent m-o-m in September, faster than a 0.9 percent gain in August. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) increased 1.6 percent y-o-y in September, decelerating from August's 1.8 percent y-o-y rise. That was in-line with economists‘ forecast. The slowdown was mainly due to falling prices of food, while the cost of non-food continued to grow. In m-o-m terms, the CPI went up 0.5 percent last month, following a 0.4 percent gain in the previous month. The  Chinese PPI data boosted commodity prices.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.29% (+1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.41% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.37% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in November settled at $51.89 (+0.86%). The crude oil prices rose amid worries over renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran. The U.S. President Donald Trump struck a blow against the 2015 Iran nuclear deal on Friday, defying both the U.S. allies and adversaries by refusing to formally certify that Tehran is complying with the accord even though international inspectors say it is. Additional support to the oil prices was provided by news about clashes between Iraqi forces and Kurdish fighters in the disputed oil province of Kirkuk as well as the latest data from Baker Hughes. The weekly report from Baker Hughes, which was released Friday, showed that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil fell by five to 743 during the week ended October 13. That followed a decrease of two rigs in the prior week. Meanwhile, the total active U.S. rig count, which includes oil and natural-gas rigs, dropped by eight to 928, as the gas rig count also decreased by two to 185 last week, while and the miscellaneous rig count declined by one to 0. The U.S. rig count is up 389 rigs from this time last year when it stood at 539.

Gold traded at $1303.40 (-0.02%). Gold prices fell slightly on the back of the broad strengthening of the U.S. dollar ahead of the release of the inflation report in the U.S. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.11 percent to 93.20. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies. however, further declines of gold prices were limited by renewed worries over North Korea.

IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)


09:00

Eurozone

Trade balance

10:00

Germany

Bundesbank Monthly Report

12:30

Canada

Foreign Securities Purchases

12:30

U.S.

NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index

14:30

Canada

Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

18:00

Eurozone

ECB's Lautenschläger Speech

21:45

New Zealand

CPI


Market Focus

  • Euro Area trade balance surplus declined significantly in August
  • Consumer prices in China were up 1.6 percent on year in September,
  • US consumer sentiment surged in early October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004 says UoM
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
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All posted material is a marketing communication solely for informational purposes and reliance on this may lead to loss. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

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