ریسک انجام معاملات فارکس و CFD قابل توجه است.

Market panorama. 18 می 2018

ATTENTION: Free access to the material presented in the Market Panorama is granted six hours after its publication. To get this material immediately, you are recommended to subscribe.

I. Market focus:

Relative calm prevailed in the financial markets at the beginning of the final session of the week due to rather limited news background. In the forex market, the main currency pairs held in relatively narrow ranges during the Asian session. A similar picture was observed in the commodity market, with oil prices hovering near a three-year high, reached in the previous session. The movements of major Asian stock indices were also limited.

At the beginning of Friday’s session, the most notable event was the statement by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer that the U.S., Canada, and Mexico "are nowhere near close to a deal" on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The remark of Lighthizer differs sharply from the comments of the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who rather positively assessed the course of negotiations between the three countries a few days earlier. The comments of the USTR had no significant influence on the dynamics of the markets, but the Canadian dollar weakened somewhat.

The market participants also continued to focus on U.S.-China trade negotiations, another round of which began in Washington yesterday. Despite the friendly gestures made by both sides before the current round of talks, there are still a lot of disagreements between Washington and Beijing, so there is little chance of a successful outcome of the meeting.

The main scheduled events of Friday are the Canadian data on inflation and retail sales, set to be released at 12:30 GMT. Economists’ forecasts suggest strong data. If such expectations come true, this will add to chances of further tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada (BoC), supporting the Canadian currency.


II. The market highlights are:

  • The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, while still hovering near historically low levels that point to a tight labor market conditions. According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 11,000 to 222,000 for the week ended May 12. Economists had expected 215,000 new claims last week. Claims for the prior week were unrevised at 211,000.  Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims dropped 2,750 to 213,250 last week, the lowest level since December 1969.

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced on Thursday its index of current manufacturing activity in the region rose to 34.4 in May from an unrevised reading of 23.2 in April. Over 43 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 9 percent reported decreases, the FRB of Philadelphia said. The details of the report were mostly higher. The indexes for new orders (+22.2 points m-o-m to 40.6), the shipments (+1.9 points m-o-m to 25.8), the unfilled orders (+7.5 points m-o-m to 15.3), the prices received (+6.6 points m-o-m to 36.4) as well as the employment index (+3.1 points m-o-m to 30.2) all improved. At the same time, the indicators for delivery times (-2.2 points m-o-m to 18.5), inventories (-1.4 points m-o-m to 8.1) and prices paid for inputs (-3.8 points m-o-m to 52.6) all dropped.

  • The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported on Thursday that Japan’s consumer prices rose 0.6 percent y-o-y in April, following a 1.1 percent y-o-y increase in the prior month. That was below economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.7 percent y-o-y and represented the lowest rate since November of 2017. Individually, the fuel, light and water charges (+3.6 percent y-o-y) rose the most in April, followed by prices for medical care (+1.9 percent y-o-y), transportation and communication (+1.1 percent y-o-y) and food (+0.7 percent y-o-y). On the contrary, prices for furniture and household utensils (-1.5 percent y-o-y) fell the most. The nationwide core consumer price gauge, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.7 percent y-o-y in April after a 0.9 percent y-o-y advance in the previous month, missing economists’ expectations for a 0.8 percent y-o-y increase. That was the lowest figure since September of 2017.


III. Market Situation
Currency Market
The currency pair EUR/USD traded slightly higher, due to the lack of new drivers and the U.S. currency consolidation near the peaks of 2018. The dollar is in demand due to investors' expectations that the Fed will continue to hike interest rates, while other key central banks postpone monetary policy tightening. Meanwhile, the euro remains under pressure due to a tense political situation in Italy, where two populist parties form the government. Today, the focus on market participants will be on the Eurozone’s data on trade balance, as well as the comments of the Fed’s Mester, Kaplan and Brainard, which may provide new clues about the prospects for monetary policy of the U.S. central bank. Resistance level - $1.1997 (high of May 14). Support level - $1.1816 (low of December 12, 2017).

The currency pair GBP/USD consolidated near the opening level, following the notable fluctuations in the previous day in response to the contradictory news on Brexit. Initially, The Telegraph reported about Britain's readiness to stay in the European Union’s customs union beyond 2021. However, this information was denied. British Prime Minister Theresa May said that Britain will leave the EU’s customs union from the end of December 2020, but will discuss customs partnership. With an empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, traders will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Resistance level - $1.3665 (high of May 2). Support level - $1.3451 (low of May 15).

The currency pair AUD/USD traded marginally higher, as the U.S. dollar stabilized after a strong rally. The main reason for the recent growth in the U.S. currency was a spike in the U.S. Treasury yields, which reflected optimism about the U.S. economy, and bolstered the expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise its rates at least two more times this year. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar received some support from growing commodities’ prices. Resistance level - AUD0.7566 (high of May 11). Support level - AUD0.7447 (low of May 15-16).

The currency pair USD/JPY rose moderately, approaching the high of January 23, reacting to an increase in yields on the U.S. government bonds, and the release of weak inflationary data in Japan, which further reduced the likelihood of a tapering of the  Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) massive quantitative easing program. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported that Japan’s consumer prices rose 0.6 percent y-o-y in April, following a 1.1 percent y-o-y increase in the prior month. That was below economists’ expectations for a gain of 0.7 percent y-o-y and represented the lowest rate since November of 2017. Individually, the fuel, light and water charges (+3.6 percent y-o-y) rose the most in April, followed by prices for medical care (+1.9 percent y-o-y), transportation and communication (+1.1 percent y-o-y) and food (+0.7 percent y-o-y). On the contrary, prices for furniture and household utensils (-1.5 percent y-o-y) fell the most. The nationwide core consumer price gauge, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.7 percent y-o-y in April after a 0.9 percent y-o-y advance in the previous month, missing economists’ expectations for a 0.8 percent y-o-y increase. That was the lowest figure since September of 2017. Resistance level - Y111.46 (high of January 18). Support level - Y110.03 (low of May 16).


Stock Market

Index

Value

Change

S&P

2,720.13

-0.09%

Dow

24,713.98

-0.22%

NASDAQ

7,382.47

-0.21%

Nikkei

22,930.36

+0.40%

Hang Seng

31,129.46  

+0.61%

Shanghai

3,193.05

+1.23%

S&P/ASX

6,087.40

-0.11%


U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Thursday, as concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions increased after the comments by the U.S. President Donald Trump, and the U.S. Treasury yields continued to hover at multi-year highs. President Trump said he was doubtful that the two countries would reach a trade agreement. Focus also was on weekly data on initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Index for May. The Labor Department reported the initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 11,000 to 222,000 for the week ended May 12. Economists had expected 215,000 new claims last week. Claims for the prior week were unrevised at 211,000.  Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims dropped 2,750 to 213,250 last week, the lowest level since December 1969. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia announced its index of current manufacturing activity in the region rose to 34.4 in May from an unrevised reading of 23.2 in April. Over 43 percent of the manufacturers reported increases in overall activity this month, while 9 percent reported decreases, the FRB of Philadelphia said. The details of the report were mostly higher.

Asian stock indexes closed mostly higher on Friday on hopes that the U.S. and China will reach a deal in the latest round of trade talks. The media reported that Beijing offered to reduce its annual trade surplus with the U.S. by $200 billion, in part by increasing imports of American products. Japan’s Nikkei rose as a weaker yen supported the Japanese large export-oriented companies.

European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.


Bond Market
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 3.11% (0 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.64% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.56% (0 basis points)

Commodity Markets
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in June settled at  $71.64 (+0.21%). The crude oil prices rose slightly on the back of the U.S. currency stabilization and the decline in global oil supplies. Market participants are now awaiting weekly data on the U.S. oil rig count from Baker Hughes, set to be released 17:00 GMT.

Gold traded at $1,290.40 (-0.03%). Gold prices were almost unchanged, due to a consolidation of the U.S. dollar. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.03 percent to 93.43. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar usually makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.

IV. The most important scheduled events (time GMT 0)


07:00

U.S.

FOMC Member Mester Speaks

08:00

Eurozone

Current account, unadjusted

09:00

Eurozone

Trade balance unadjusted

12:30

Canada

Retail Sales

12:30

Canada

Retail Sales ex Autos

12:30

Canada

Consumer price index

12:30

Canada

Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core

13:15

U.S.

FOMC Member Kaplan Speak

13:15

U.S.

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

17:00

U.S.

Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count


Market Focus

  • ECB's Weidmann says first ECB rate hike could follow the end of QE more closely than in the U.S
  • Industrial producer prices rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.2% in the EU28
  • European Commission forecasts Euro Zone inflation will accelerate to 1.6 pct y/y in 2019 from 1.5 pct y/y seen in 2018
  • UK service providers signalled a modest rebound in business activity - Markit
می 2018
  • 2018
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
د.
س.
چهارشنبه
پ.
جمعه
ش.
ی.
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

Quotes

All posted material is a marketing communication solely for informational purposes and reliance on this may lead to loss. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

Subscribe

Privacy Policy

برای به حداکثر رساندن تجربه بازدید شما در وب سایت TeleTrade از کوکی ها استفاده شده است. برای ادامه مرور در سایت، شما می توانید از گزینه کوکی استفاده کنید. چنانچه مخالف هستید، میتوانید تنظیمات مرورگر خود را در هر زمان تغییر دهید. بیشتر یاد بگیرید

Служба технической поддержки:
8-800-200-31-00, support@teletrade-dj.com

  • Онлайн-консультация
  • Заказать звонок
  • Написать письмо
با ما در تماس باشید
اشتراک گذاری در
شبکه های اجتماعی
مشاوره
آنلاین
تقاضای
تماس با شما
بالای صفحه